MLB Insiders: 2 Huge Contract Predictions This Winter

As the confetti settles from the World Series, the baseball world pivots from the postseason to the “hot stove” season. This winter, the free-agent market is brimming with generational talent, and front offices are preparing to spend record-breaking amounts of money. We’ve been in constant contact with top MLB insiders, league executives, and player agents to get a feel for where the market is headed. The consensus? It’s going to be explosive.

Two names stand above the rest: outfielder Juan Soto and starting pitcher Corbin Burnes. Their destinations will not only alter the balance of power in the league but will also set the financial benchmark for superstars for years to come. Based on our conversations and analysis, here are our two massive contract predictions for the MLB offseason.

Juan Soto’s Record-Breaking Deal

There is no bigger prize in the 2025-26 free-agent class than Juan Soto. After a spectacular walk-year with the New York Yankees, the 27-year-old outfielder is poised to sign one of the largest contracts in professional sports history. His combination of elite hitting, unparalleled plate discipline, and championship experience makes him a franchise-altering player.

Soto’s agent, Scott Boras, is notorious for securing mammoth deals, and this will be his magnum opus. The bidding war will be fierce, but a few teams have emerged as the clear frontrunners.

The New York Yankees are desperate to keep him in pinstripes. They traded a significant prospect haul to acquire him and watched him thrive under the Bronx spotlight. Losing him after just one season would be a colossal failure for the organization. Across town, the New York Mets and owner Steve Cohen have the financial might to make a jaw-dropping offer that could blow everyone else out of the water.

Don’t sleep on the San Francisco Giants, who have missed on big free agents in recent years and are hungry for a true face of the franchise. They have the money and the motivation.

However, our sources indicate that Soto’s comfort level and success in New York will be the deciding factor. The allure of becoming a Yankee legend, coupled with an offer that will satisfy Boras, is a powerful combination.

The Prediction: Juan Soto re-signs with the New York Yankees.

The Contract: 14 years, $560 million.

This deal would give Soto the highest total value for a position player, eclipsing Mike Trout’s deal, and a staggering $40 million average annual value (AAV). It’s a price the Yankees almost have to pay. For more on his historic season, you can review his stats on his official MLB player page.

Corbin Burnes: The Ace’s Payday

While Soto dominates the position-player headlines, Corbin Burnes is the undisputed ace of the starting pitching market. The former Cy Young winner proved his durability and dominance during his lone season with the Baltimore Orioles, leading them on a deep playoff run. Now, he hits the open market as a battle-tested workhorse that every contender covets.

At 31 years old, Burnes is looking to cash in on his peak performance. The demand for top-of-the-rotation starters is always high, and this winter is no exception. While the Baltimore Orioles would love to retain him, their historically cautious spending habits may put them at a disadvantage.

Teams like the St. Louis Cardinals, who desperately need a staff anchor, and the ever-present Los Angeles Dodgers will certainly be in the mix. However, another East Coast powerhouse is ready to make a significant splash.

The Philadelphia Phillies have shown they are not afraid to spend to win, as evidenced by their contracts for Bryce Harper and Trea Turner. Adding Burnes to a rotation that already features Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola would give them arguably the best 1-2-3 punch in all of baseball and make them instant World Series favorites. President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski has a history of acquiring the final piece needed for a championship run.

The Prediction: Corbin Burnes signs with the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Contract: 7 years, $245 million.

This contract comes with a $35 million AAV, placing him among the highest-paid pitchers in the game, a status he has certainly earned. It’s a price the Phillies will gladly pay to push for a title.

What the MLB Insiders Are Really Saying

Behind the scenes, the conversations among MLB insiders revolve around a few key factors. The first is the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT). Teams like the Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers are already operating near or above the highest threshold, meaning every dollar they spend on Soto or Burnes is taxed at a punitive rate. An anonymous AL executive told us, “For some owners, a $40 million salary is effectively a $60 million hit. That changes the math significantly.”

Secondly, the structure of these deals will be critical. Expect to see multiple opt-out clauses in both contracts, giving the players flexibility to re-enter the market if it continues to escalate. For teams, deferred money will be a key strategy to lower the present-day value and CBT number, a tactic the Dodgers perfected with Shohei Ohtani’s contract.

One trusted insider noted, “Don’t just look at the total value. Look at the guarantees, the opt-outs, and the deferrals. That’s where the real battle is fought between the agent and the front office.”

The Ripple Effect on the Market

The signings of Soto and Burnes will create a domino effect across the league. Once they are off the board, a frenzy will begin for the next tier of free agents. Players like Alex Bregman, Ha-Seong Kim, and Walker Buehler will see their own markets intensify as the losing bidders for the top two guys pivot quickly.

Teams that fail to land Soto may overpay for a bat like Bregman. Teams that miss on Burnes will turn their attention to a riskier but high-upside arm like Buehler. This is why you often see the first major signing take weeks; everyone is waiting to see where the top chip falls. To keep up with all the moves, be sure to check our complete MLB offseason tracker for the latest news and rumors.

This winter is shaping up to be one for the history books. With hundreds of millions—and potentially over a billion—dollars to be spent, the landscape of Major League Baseball is about to change dramatically. Buckle up, because the hot stove is just getting started.